Eastward to Tartary (Vintage Departures) By Robert D. Kaplan

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Eastward to Tartary, Robert Kaplan's first book to focus on a single region since his bestselling Balkan Ghosts, introduces readers to an explosive and little-known part of the world destined to become a tinderbox of the future.Kaplan takes us on a spellbinding journey into the heart of a volatile region, stretching from Hungary and Romania to the far shores of the oil-rich Caspian Sea. Through dramatic stories of unforgettable characters, Kaplan illuminates the tragic history of this unstable area that he describes as the new fault line between East and West. He ventures from Turkey, Syria, and Israel to the turbulent countries of the Caucasus, from the newly rich city of Baku to the deserts of Turkmenistan and the killing fields of Armenia. The result is must reading for anyone concerned about the state of our world in the decades to come.

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I first encountered Kaplan in his absorbing article on instability of Pakistan in the September 2000 Atlantic magazine. He warned then that the Taliban activities in Afghanistan were having a dangerously destabilizing effect on Pakistan and American foreign policy seemed to be alarmingly indifferent to what that fact could portend for the region and American interests in the middle east.That was 1 full year to the date before 9/11. Remarkably, he was eerily prescient. He has a habit of being so.When Kaplan travelled the Balkans in the late 80's, he foresaw the region lumbering toward war while the US and Europe seemed unwilling or unable to do anything meaningful but watch uneasily. Within a year of the publication his Balkan Ghosts, war broke out and occupied NATO forces and resources for several years before relative peace arose. Indeed, Clinton's reading of Balkan Ghosts has been rumored to have persuaded him that the US had to intervene.Kaplan's Eastward to Tartary covers what he referred to as "the new near east": the region east of the newly expanded NATO borders, west of China, and south of Russia. Why did he focus on this region? Because 70% of the then-known oil reserves and 40% of the then-known nat gas reserves were located in the region. That makes the region inherently important to all powerful nations who need a secure source of energy, including the US, Europe, China, and India. Combine that with the fact that 50% of the population of the entire region was then under 14, and that there were negligible education, growth, and employment opportunities for the young in those same nations, you have the recipe for volatility that is difficult if not impossible to control. The unemployed young have no loyalty to the regimes therein, at the same time democratic reform is inevitable. That in turn signalled that bottom-up revolutions would topple reliable despots in the region on whom the US has depended for 60 years to secure access to oil while at the same time the Iranian revolution in 1978 proved that democratizaing alone need not result in western-friendly nations.Kaplan predicted that the instability would run for 10 - 15 years. I write this review on the eve of Egypt's successful (at least temporarily) revolution. We know now in 2011 how prescient Kaplan was in 2000 and he merits reading and re-reading because we are not through this unstable period yet. I urge readers of this very current review to read the book to know how to assess whether the US policy is effective, but if you can't read the book, listen to Kaplan's presentation to the School of Advanced Military Studies at the Command and General Staff School, where American field grade officers are groomed for generalships. It can be found on C-SPAN's archives site under Kaplan's name and the title of the book.

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